Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
